Model Predictions
| Model | Appalachian State | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 67.1% | 32.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.8% | 22.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.0% | 22.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson -5 (72-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.