Model Predictions
| Model | Fairfield | Iona | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Iona +17 (90-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.