Model Predictions
| Model | Jacksonville State | Samford | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.4% | 83.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.5% | 81.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 8.5% | 91.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.3% | 91.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.0% | 80.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Samford +15 (68-53). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.