Model Predictions
| Model | Mount St. Mary's | Robert Morris | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 35.8% | 64.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 27.0% | 73.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.7% | 72.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Robert Morris +15 (73-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.