Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly | Pacific | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.0% | 67.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Pacific +21 (87-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.