Model Predictions
| Model | Marshall | Ohio | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Ohio +24 (77-53). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.