Model Predictions
| Model | Manhattan | Niagara | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.6% | 33.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Niagara +10 (86-76). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.