Model Predictions
| Model | Tennessee Tech | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.9% | 84.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State +1 (75-74). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.