Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara | Long Beach State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.4% | 88.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.4% | 80.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 29.9% | 70.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 8.6% | 91.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.5% | 91.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 17.8% | 82.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Long Beach State +18 (86-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.