Model Predictions
| Model | Elon | High Point | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.4% | 41.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: High Point +17 (77-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.