Model Predictions
| Model | Southern | Grambling | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 80.7% | 19.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 86.3% | 13.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 73.0% | 27.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 89.2% | 10.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 93.3% | 6.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 93.4% | 6.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 71.6% | 28.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Grambling -5 (84-89). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.