Model Predictions
| Model | Morehead State | Eastern Illinois | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.5% | 70.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Eastern Illinois +13 (82-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.