Model Predictions
| Model | South Florida | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.2% | 94.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.0% | 86.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 12.8% | 87.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.0% | 97.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.0% | 97.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.7% | 85.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +17 (89-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.