Model Predictions
| Model | Siena | Canisius | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.8% | 32.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.6% | 22.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 70.7% | 29.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 83.9% | 16.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 83.8% | 16.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Canisius -9 (75-84). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.