Model Predictions
| Model | Coastal Carolina | Winthrop | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.4% | 87.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.6% | 74.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 26.3% | 73.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.2% | 88.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.9% | 89.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Winthrop +13 (83-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.