Model Predictions
| Model | Lamar | Sam Houston | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Sam Houston +18 (69-51). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.