Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara | Pacific | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Pacific -15 (54-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.