Model Predictions
| Model | Middle Tennessee | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.5% | 92.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.3% | 72.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Murray State -2 (79-81). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.