Model Predictions
| Model | Massachusetts | Duquesne | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 65.3% | 34.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 86.9% | 13.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 87.2% | 12.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.4% | 44.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duquesne -9 (75-84). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.