Model Predictions
| Model | New Hampshire | Delaware | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.7% | 96.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 9.2% | 90.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.7% | 92.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 7.0% | 93.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.2% | 98.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.1% | 98.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 8.8% | 91.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Delaware +47 (102-55). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.