Model Predictions
| Model | Army | Navy | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.3% | 96.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 12.6% | 87.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 10.8% | 89.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.0% | 98.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.9% | 98.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 12.8% | 87.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Navy +27 (76-49). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.