Model Predictions
| Model | UAB | Memphis | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.6% | 33.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis +14 (84-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.