Model Predictions
| Model | Miami (OH) | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Marshall -5 (58-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.