Model Predictions
| Model | Georgia State | Samford | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.8% | 89.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.5% | 89.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Samford -18 (51-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.