Model Predictions
| Model | Ball State | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.9% | 60.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Marshall +12 (85-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.