Model Predictions
| Model | High Point | Winthrop | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.5% | 85.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 23.4% | 76.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.9% | 92.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.6% | 92.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Winthrop +18 (75-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.