Model Predictions
| Model | Duke | Wake Forest | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 83.7% | 16.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 80.1% | 19.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 76.1% | 23.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 91.9% | 8.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 92.2% | 7.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 68.5% | 31.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wake Forest -14 (61-75). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.