Model Predictions
| Model | Arizona State | UCLA | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.2% | 76.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 25.8% | 74.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.0% | 75.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.4% | 72.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UCLA +6 (83-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.