Model Predictions
| Model | UCF | Stetson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.5% | 33.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Stetson +2 (88-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.