Model Predictions
| Model | San Jose State | Rice | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 76.7% | 23.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Rice -2 (56-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.