Model Predictions
| Model | Murray State | Morehead State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 72.2% | 27.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 79.2% | 20.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 63.8% | 36.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 88.3% | 11.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 88.3% | 11.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Morehead State -1 (86-87). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.