Model Predictions
| Model | Nicholls State | Lamar | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 8.8% | 91.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.9% | 91.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.8% | 80.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Lamar +7 (70-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.