Model Predictions
| Model | VMI | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.9% | 90.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.0% | 79.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.4% | 80.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 14.2% | 85.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 14.2% | 85.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson +11 (80-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.