Model Predictions
| Model | Texas–Rio Grande Valley | Centenary (LA) | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.5% | 35.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Centenary (LA) +3 (89-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.