Model Predictions
| Model | Utah State | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 74.5% | 25.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.5% | 22.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 68.8% | 31.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 70.8% | 29.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 93.0% | 7.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 93.1% | 6.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 67.4% | 32.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly -12 (62-74). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.