Model Predictions
| Model | UTEP | Southern Methodist | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Southern Methodist +17 (104-87). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.