Model Predictions
| Model | Hawaii | Rice | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.6% | 32.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 62.7% | 37.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 72.3% | 27.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.5% | 5.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.5% | 5.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 65.1% | 34.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Rice -3 (65-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.