Model Predictions
| Model | North Texas | Pacific | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 21.0% | 79.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.9% | 79.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Pacific +12 (77-65). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.