Model Predictions
| Model | Tennessee–Martin | Morehead State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 23.4% | 76.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.5% | 66.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Morehead State -17 (62-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.