Model Predictions
| Model | Mercer | Campbell | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.6% | 66.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.4% | 34.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Campbell -2 (74-76). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.