Model Predictions
| Model | Nevada | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly +1 (71-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.