Model Predictions
| Model | Morgan State | Iona | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.9% | 88.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 9.6% | 90.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.5% | 97.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.3% | 97.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Iona +10 (77-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.