Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 4.2% | 95.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 0.9% | 99.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 7.9% | 92.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +20 (75-55). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.