Model Predictions
| Model | Austin Peay | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.5% | 77.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State +2 (77-75). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.