Model Predictions
| Model | West Virginia | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.9% | 67.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Marshall -5 (77-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Marshall, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.