Model Predictions
| Model | Western Carolina | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.4% | 85.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.1% | 80.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson +5 (83-78). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.