Model Predictions
| Model | McNeese | Texas State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Texas State -5 (70-75). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.