Model Predictions
| Model | Wisconsin | Purdue | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.6% | 29.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Purdue +11 (63-52). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.