Model Predictions
| Model | Southeast Missouri State | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.6% | 42.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Murray State -6 (78-84). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.