Model Predictions
| Model | Eastern Michigan | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Marshall +15 (83-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.